Benutzer:Nils Simon/Klimatologie/Vermeidung

Hier werden wissenschaftliche Arbeiten gesammelt, die sich mit der effektiven Vermeidung der globalen Erwärmung beschäftigen.

2006

Leggett

3. Februar:

Leggett, Mark (2006): An indicative costed plan for the mitigation of global risks, in: Futures 38, Vol. 7, S. 778–809, doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.004.

"An integrated risk management method is developed for the task of addressing global risks—those threatening the destruction of civilisation, humanity, life on Earth, or the entire planet. Use of the method produced four main results. First, the following risks were classified as global risks: an avian influenza pandemic; scientific experiments which change the fabric of the universe in ways not previously seen in nature; global-warming, especially either releasing methane from methane clathrates or causing a new ice age; biovorous nanoreplicators; computers or robots surpassing human accomplishment; super-eruption; nuclear exchange (full superpower arsenals); strike by large asteroid or comet; eruption of continental flood basalts; and a massive pulse of cosmic rays. Second, it was found that responses are capable of development for each risk. Third, a comprehensive scan for potential interactions between risks and responses found that solar and wind energy (mooted as an alternative to global-warming fossil fuels) would be greatly reduced or uncertain during a super-eruption winter. Two energy options both address global warming and are robust against super-eruption: geothermal and nuclear. Of these, geothermal energy seems lower-risk than nuclear. Finally, the full suite of required responses is estimated to cost approximately $67 trillion. Starting now but introduced over the multi-decade timeframes generally available, this budget would represent a surprisingly small 2.2 per cent of gross world product per year. By contrast, US expenditure on World War II in 1944 was 35 per cent of GNP."

<ref name="Leggett 2006"> Leggett, Mark (2006): ''An indicative costed plan for the mitigation of global risks'', in: Futures 38, Vol. 7, S. 778–809, doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.004.</ref>

2004

Pacala/Socolow

14. August:

Pacala, Stephen und Robert Socolow (2004):Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies, in: Science 305, 14. August, S. 968-972 (engl.) (PDF)

"Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world’s energy needs over the next 50years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used."

<ref name="Pacala/Solow 2004">Pacala, Stephen und Robert Socolow (2004):''Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies'', in: Science 305, 14. August, S. 968-972 (engl.) [http://fire.pppl.gov/energy_socolow_081304.pdf (PDF)]</ref>